Keys to anticipating geopolitical instability and protecting human capital in conflict zones
The recent evacuation of non-essential staff from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad—triggered by threats arising from the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel—highlights the region’s increasing volatility. This decision is part of a series of preventive measures in response to the risk of a broader regional conflict. In this context, international companies operating in Iraq—in sectors such as energy, defense, logistics, and construction—must integrate geopolitical risk management as a structural component of their operational planning. Strategic anticipation, intelligence-based decision-making, and effective personnel protection are essential pillars for resilient operations in high-complexity environments like Iraq.
What is a preventive evacuation?
A preventive evacuation is the planned and coordinated withdrawal of personnel from areas of potential conflict before conditions deteriorate drastically. It is based on risk indicators such as heightened diplomatic tensions, military movements, cyberattacks, or intelligence alerts. These evacuations are a critical part of business continuity plans and should be designed for execution within 24 to 72 hours, minimizing exposure and ensuring traceability of personnel. Unlike emergency evacuations, which occur amid chaos, preventive evacuations allow for operational leeway and help maintain logistical, reputational, and human control of the situation.
What’s happening in Iraq right now?
In recent weeks, Iraq has faced a dynamic of intensified regional tension, driven by the escalation between the U.S., Iran, and Israel, along with the reemergence of internal threats. This complex convergence makes the country a high-risk area, especially for foreign personnel and assets.
Risk-aggravating factors:
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Israeli threats against Iran: According to U.S. officials, Israel is “fully prepared” to launch an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in the coming days. Israel has tacit approval from Trump to act, provided diplomatic talks fail. This has significantly raised the probability of regional reprisals.
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Partial evacuation of U.S. diplomatic staff in Baghdad and Erbil, authorized by the U.S. State Department on June 11 due to “elevated security risks,” reflecting the direct impact of U.S.-Iran tensions.
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Explicit Iranian threats: Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that Iran could strike U.S. bases in the region if nuclear negotiations collapse.
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Increased flight and military activity in Anbar Province, with fighter jet flyovers and drone patrols, indicating operational security concerns in remote areas.
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ISIS cell reactivation, with an estimated 1,500–3,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq regrouping in urban areas and recruiting, leading to recent attacks on military infrastructure and civilians.
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Active pro-Iranian militias: Groups such as Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata’ib Hezbollah continue attacking U.S. bases with rockets and drones as part of the domestic “Islamic Resistance.”
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Israeli logistical exercise in Yemen: Recent Israeli navy strikes on the port of Hodeidah and other targets in Yemen show Israel is testing expeditionary capabilities and critical logistical routes beyond its territory, which could have implications for regional military escalation.
Current alert level
According to the June 11 report from ACK3 and U.S. State Department recommendations (Level 4 Travel Advisory: “Do Not Travel”), Iraq remains on High Alert, with a very real risk of escalation due to great power friction and local insurgent threats.
How international companies should prepare
Organizations with expatriate staff or critical operations in Iraq should activate their contingency protocols. These are key recommendations backed by international security experts:
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Avoid travel in high-alert regions (Baghdad, Basra, Anbar).
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Activate crisis communication channels, including encrypted messaging groups and 24/7 emergency hotlines.
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Update evacuation plans, including alternative routes, logistics providers, and coordinated extraction mechanisms with local or international forces.
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Establish direct contact with embassies or consulates, which can provide early information on repatriation operations.
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Train and brief deployed personnel, including emergency drills and distribution of emergency kits.
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Respect local restrictions: Comply with safety regulations and government directives.
Jorge Quintana, CEO of ACK3, warns: “Anticipation is key. In high-volatility contexts like Iraq, strategic decisions must be based on up-to-date situational intelligence and pre-validated response plans. Reacting late is no longer an option.”
The evolving conflict in the Middle East—especially in Iraq—requires companies with international presence to adopt a proactive and strategic approach to geopolitical risks. The combination of state threats, local insurgencies, and regional tensions can destabilize operations within hours. In this scenario, anticipation is not a competitive advantage—it’s an operational necessity. Having tested evacuation plans, environmental intelligence systems, trained teams, and reliable local partners not only protects human lives—it also safeguards business continuity, corporate reputation, and long-term investment. In environments like Iraq, it’s not the biggest company that endures, but the best-prepared one.
Is your organization ready to face a real-time geopolitical crisis?
At ACK3, we help companies anticipate, plan, and respond effectively to high-risk scenarios. With over 15 years of operational experience in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, the Sahel, and other critically unstable areas, we design evacuation plans, tactical intelligence, and continuity protocols tailored to changing environments.
