How the EU plans to boost defense, strengthen strategic autonomy, and confront hybrid threats in an evolving geopolitical landscape
The European Union is facing a critical moment in defense and security. The recent Defense White Paper highlights the urgency of strengthening the bloc’s military preparedness in the face of evolving threats and an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. For decades, defense investment has been insufficient, leaving Europe in a vulnerable position. Now, with the war in Ukraine, Russia’s growing aggressiveness, China’s rise, and the decreasing U.S. commitment to European security, the situation calls for an immediate and coordinated response.
A context of multiple threats and the need for strategic autonomy
The document emphasizes that Ukraine’s security is key to Europe’s overall stability, as its outcome will shape the balance of power on the continent. The war has demonstrated the need for a unified and sustained response, not only through the supply of weapons and ammunition but also by integrating Ukraine’s defense industry into the European ecosystem. Europe must move toward greater strategic autonomy, which involves not only increasing defense spending but also improving coordination among member states, developing an effective strategy, strengthening the defense industry, and ensuring that European technology remains at the forefront of global competition. So far, fragmentation has created inefficiencies and limited the ability to respond to emerging threats.
In addition, crises in North Africa and the Middle East pose challenges such as military buildups in countries like Morocco and Algeria, the effects of climate change, and migration flows. Meanwhile, the Arctic has become a new front of geopolitical competition, with actors like Russia and China increasing their presence in the region. One of the most critical points is the stance of the United States, which has long expressed its intention to shift its focus to other regions, particularly the Asia-Pacific. As former Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated:
“Europe must take greater leadership in its own security, as the world faces multiple simultaneous challenges.” Furthermore, on March 3, the White House announced that it is “pausing and reviewing” U.S. military aid to Ukraine. This came after Donald Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being ungrateful and “not ready for peace” following a tense exchange between Zelenskyy, Trump, and Vice President Vance in the Oval Office. This paradigm shift means that the EU can no longer rely on Washington as the guarantor of its stability.
Percentage chart of total investment (in millions of dollars) by the world’s top defense-spending countries
Source: Global Firepower Ranking 2025.
Investments and cooperation: a new defense model
To address these shortcomings, the White Paper proposes the creation of European Common Interest Defense Projects, allowing member states to develop joint capabilities with EU support. This is a key strategy to avoid investment duplication and maximize resource efficiency. The document also highlights that Russia allocated 9% of its GDP to defense in 2024, an unprecedented figure in recent times. For the EU, this underscores the need for sustained financial effort. Currently, EU member states combined spend only about 1.5% of their GDP on military spending, far below the 2% recommended by NATO.
Hybrid warfare and the technological race
The White Paper notes that the modern battlefield is no longer just physical but also digital and psychological. Hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks, sabotage, satellite system manipulation, and disinformation campaigns, are on the rise. The recent attacks on critical infrastructure in several European countries have highlighted the region’s vulnerability to hostile actors seeking to destabilize society and institutions. At the same time, advances in disruptive technologies will shape the new global competition landscape. The EU identifies five key areas where it must invest to ensure its military and technological superiority:
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Artificial intelligence (AI)
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Quantum computing
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Biotechnology and neuroscience
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Advanced robotics
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Hypersonic missiles
These developments will not only define the future of warfare but also have a crucial impact on Europe’s economic growth and industrial sovereignty.
Key military investment areas
The document identifies seven key priorities for European rearmament:
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Air and missile defense
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Advanced artillery systems
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Ammunition and missile production
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Drones and anti-drone systems
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Military mobility
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Cybersecurity, AI, electronic warfare, and quantum computing
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Strategic infrastructure and border protection
One of the most ambitious projects is the Eastern Border Shield, which strengthens security in countries bordering Russia and Belarus. However, this strategy raises questions about the imbalance in attention to other borders, such as those in Southern Europe. Spain and Greece have argued that Mediterranean security is equally crucial, considering the increased military buildup in North Africa and the growing migration pressures.
The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, has emphasized that “not only should the threat posed by the expansionism of Vladimir Putin’s regime be considered, but also the challenges Mediterranean countries face with nations on the other side of the Mediterranean, especially regarding the flow of immigrants.” Sánchez has also called for border control and counterterrorism efforts to be included in the concept of military spending to facilitate EU financing.
Unprecedented financing: the five pillars
To support these initiatives, the EU proposes a financing model based on five pillars:
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Creation of SAFE (Security and Action for Europe): an instrument of up to €150 billion for defense investment.
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Flexibility in the Stability and Growth Pact, allowing for greater security spending.
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Optimized use of existing financial instruments.
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Increased involvement of the European Investment Bank (EIB).
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Mobilization of private capital, which is key to boosting the defense sector, particularly among SMEs.
A revealing statistic is that 44% of defense sector SMEs in the EU face financing difficulties, which contrasts with their competitors in the U.S. and the UK. Currently, U.S. investors account for 60% of total defense investment in Europe, posing a strategic issue in terms of industrial autonomy.
In this context, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of strengthening Europe’s defense industry: “We must buy more European. Because that means strengthening the European defense technological and industrial base. That means stimulating innovation. And that means creating an EU-wide market for defense equipment.”
Next steps in the EU Defense Strategy
The Defense White Paper is only the beginning of a broader strategy. In the coming months, the EU will publish the Preparedness Union Strategy, which will establish a comprehensive approach to crisis and conflict preparedness, and the EU Internal Security Strategy, which will define a unified framework for preventing, detecting, and responding to security threats. These documents will be key to consolidating the new European security architecture.
An opportunity with strategic challenges
The Defense White Paper marks a turning point in European security, but its success will depend on the ability of member states to implement a coordinated and sustainable strategy. The EU must ensure that rearmament does not create internal imbalances and that all its borders are equally protected.
Is the EU investing wisely — and enough?
As the geopolitical environment evolves rapidly, the EU’s ability to act decisively will be tested not only by its ambition, but by its structural limitations. Fragmented decision-making, dependency on external actors, and industrial underdevelopment continue to hinder progress. While the Defense White Paper outlines a clear path forward, implementation will require sustained political will, cross-border coordination, and a shift in mindset—from reactive to strategic. Responding to current threats is not enough. The EU must pursue a structural transformation—one that builds a stronger, more autonomous defense industry, fosters innovation, and ensures strategic investment in emerging technologies. Only then can Europe secure the stability and global influence it seeks in the decades ahead.
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