The recent escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel has reignited global fears over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil and gas transport.
At a moment of high tension between Iran, Israel, and the United States, the world is watching closely as one of the world’s most strategic maritime corridors faces renewed pressure. Following reciprocal attacks — including strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and missile launches targeting cities in both Iran and Israel — the risk of disruption in maritime traffic through Hormuz has surged. This escalation intensified after the United States conducted direct airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. The move marked a turning point in the crisis, raising concerns about regional spillover.
Iran has repeatedly hinted at the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic lever in response to external military action. In June 2025, the Iranian parliament passed a symbolic motion urging the government to shut the strait following attacks on its nuclear infrastructure. While this body lacks the authority to enforce such action — which would rest with the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader — the declaration was viewed as a signal worth monitoring. Even though a total closure would carry severe consequences for Iran’s own economy — which depends heavily on maritime oil exports — the mere threat, or a single incident, can trigger sharp fluctuations in global energy markets, raise maritime insurance premiums, and force costly logistical diversions. Hormuz has thus evolved from a regional flashpoint into a global risk vector.
What is the strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint, just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and, by extension, the world’s oceans. Roughly 20% of global oil and nearly one-third of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this corridor. While international maritime law considers Hormuz an international waterway, territorial control is split between Iran (to the north) and Oman (to the south). In practice, Iran exerts considerable military influence in the area through its naval base in Bandar Abbas, missile installations on Qeshm Island, and other coastal military assets. This gives Tehran substantial deterrence capability, making Hormuz not only an economic corridor but a first-order strategic axis.
Key Gulf ports at risk
A sustained disruption or full closure of Hormuz would affect multiple critical ports in the Persian Gulf:
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Bandar Abbas (Iran): Handles ~90% of Iran’s container traffic and serves as a major oil export hub.
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Kharg Island (Iran): Iran’s main oil terminal with a daily capacity of up to 5 million barrels.
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Fujairah (UAE): A key alternative to Hormuz. In June 2025, two disguised oil tankers collided near Fujairah, raising concerns about operational risks in the surrounding area.
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Jask (Iran): An alternative pipeline outlet launched in 2021 with a capacity of ~300,000 b/d, still underutilized and operationally limited.
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Za’afarana–Suez (Egypt): Receives overflow volumes if tankers bypass Hormuz, putting additional logistical pressure on the Suez-Mediterranean route.
Port infrastructure in this region functions as both a defensive buffer and a potential bottleneck in global supply chains under strain.
Regional impact
Europe
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Import price spikes: Southern European countries such as Italy and Spain depend on Gulf crude. In June 2025, IMF and ECB reports warned of prices exceeding $100/bbl if closure persists.
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Market volatility: European energy and transport sectors have seen increased instability, with fears of technical recession if the crisis prolongs.
Asia
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High energy exposure: Over 80% of the oil and gas transiting Hormuz is destined for Asia. China, India, Japan, and South Korea are seeking alternatives. Roughly 33–38% of crude passing through Hormuz goes directly to China.
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Rising LNG costs: LNG prices are climbing across Asia, affecting industrial output and household energy costs.
Iran
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Severe economic impact: Closing Hormuz would halt Iran’s own maritime oil exports, which account for a major share of its state revenue — effectively risking economic self-harm.
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Limited alternatives: The Jask pipeline offers some relief but its ~300,000 b/d capacity (operating under 70,000 b/d as of mid-2024) cannot offset Hormuz flows.
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Internal pressure: Port congestion and a slowdown in non-energy trade would further stress Iran’s fragile economy.
A long-standing strategic flashpoint
Hormuz has been the focus of tension for decades. During the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), both sides targeted oil tankers in the so-called “Tanker War” Since then, the strait has seen repeated security incidents: vessel boardings, sabotage, drone activity, and the steady presence of U.S., UK, and other naval powers.
The current context marks a new phase. With Israel conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, and the U.S. targeting sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025, Iranian forces have responded with missile strikes on Israeli targets and warnings to Washington.
While a full closure of the strait is technically difficult — and diplomatically risky — even partial disruption or a credible threat has immediate global consequences:
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War risk insurance premiums have surged
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Major shipping firms have rerouted or suspended operations
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Brent crude briefly surged above $110/bbl
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Qatar warned LNG supply may be disrupted if the area sees further militarization
Global consequences: energy, inflation, and stability
Even partial interference in Hormuz could have far-reaching effects:
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Energy prices: Oil and gas markets would respond immediately to perceived scarcity and risk. Europe and Asia, heavily reliant on Qatari LNG, would face intense competition and price inflation.
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Global inflation: Rising fuel costs would affect transport, agriculture, and manufacturing — driving a new wave of inflation just as central banks aim to stabilize prices.
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Supply chains: Petrochemicals, fertilizers, plastics, and refined products could become scarce or expensive. Global shipping would slow, with higher insurance and transport costs.
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Geopolitical escalation: Naval deployments would intensify. A single incident could spark a broader conflict with unpredictable regional or global outcomes.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime corridor through which a large portion of the world’s energy supply flows. In today’s climate of active hostilities and reprisals between Iran, the U.S., and Israel, this 33-kilometer-wide channel has once again become a central axis of global strategic risk.
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At ACK3, our analysts in the Security Operations Center (SOC) monitor strategic movements, critical incidents, and emerging risks in real time — including in high-risk areas like the Strait of Hormuz.
